Lim Kit Siang is right when he said the August 17 meeting of the PAS Central Committee is D-Day for Pakatan.
If PAS supports Dr. Wan Azizah, then Pakatan can successfully avoid State Elections but if PAS supports Selangor Menteri Besar (MB) Khalid Ibrahim, State Elections will be called for with the help of Barisan Nasional (BN) and DAP’s Hannah Yeoh.
Yes, it is true. PAS, BN and Hannah Yeoh are now responsible for the future of Selangorians.
Recently, PKR’s Saifuddin Nasution and DAP’s Tony Pua said Khalid no longer had the support to continue as MB and wanted him to prove he had the support of the majority of the assemblymen.
Perhaps Saifuddin and Tony should ask themselves if they are sure Khalid has lost the support of the majority of the assemblymen.
DAP has 15 seats, PKR 13, PAS 15, BN 12 and of course one independent (Khalid himself).
Do not forget, DAP’s ADUN Hannah Yeoh is also the Speaker of the State Assembly and while she cannot vote, she will have to, if there is a tie.
Even if Saifuddin and Tony are both confident their ADUNs like Teng Chang Khim will toe the line, there are only 27 votes against Khalid (14 from DAP and 13 from PKR).
Both Saifuddin and Tony know that PAS has yet to decide whether or not it would back Khalid as MB.
PAS will only decide on August 17. What will PAS do?
If PAS agrees to back Dr. Wan Azizah, Khalid’s career is over.
This way, Pakatan Rakyat will remain in power and Selangorians will have to wait for GE14 in 2017/18 to punish Pakatan.
But if PAS decides to go with Khalid, then BN must think carefully if they want to team up with PAS and Khalid.
BN has nothing to gain and much to lose. Unless of course, BN wishes to gamble that Hannah Yeoh resigns in order to force Khalid to dissolve the State Assembly.
Let us assume that Khalid, BN and PAS do form an alliance.
The three will have 28 votes out of a maximum possible 55 votes in the State Assembly. This should be sufficient for Khalid to command the confidence of the majority of the State Assemblymen (28 vs 27, Speaker stays out).
But the drama doesn’t end here.
The fate of Khalid Ibrahim and Pakatan then lies in the hands of Speaker Hannah Yeoh.
If Hannah Yeoh resigns as Speaker of the House and returns to the DAP bench, DAP-PKR will have 28 votes versus the 28 votes from the PAS-BN-Khalid Ibrahim alliance.
This is a ‘hung assembly’.
Not only that, Standing Order 3 states that “whenever there is vacancy in the office of Speaker whether as the result of a dissolution of Assembly or otherwise the Assembly shall, as soon as a quorum is present, proceed to elect a Speaker”.
The State Assembly must choose a new speaker in the next State Assembly meeting.
Both sides are expected to nominate one candidate each to replace Hannah Yeoh but neither is likely to win.
When that happens, the State Assembly’s Standing Order 4 (6) (c) comes into the picture. The rule states, “Where at any ballot between two candidates the votes are equal, another ballot shall be held and if at such subsequent ballot the votes are equal, the determination shall be by lot which shall be drawn in such manner as the Clerk shall decide”.
Whoever wins will not command support from the other side and we are back to square one.
There is no way Khalid will see his “legacy” go down to this political impasse especially in the State Assembly.
The State Government is at risk of facing a shutdown especially when the State Budget is coming up in November. I doubt the Palace will allow this to happen.
Khalid will have no choice but to dissolve the State Assembly and his career is as good as over. Of course, he will also drag Pakatan down with him.
Pakatan will have to face the full wrath and fury of the Selangor voters for the political circus and issues haunting us for years.
Now, do you think Hannah Yeoh will resign for these to happen? What will DAP tell her to do?
Interesting days ahead and one thing is for sure, politicians have the ability to display the finest art of trust, deception and betrayal.
Comment by Goh Wei Liang
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