Wong Choon Mei
As expected, BN has won both the by-elections in Merlimau and Kerdau - two traditional strongholds that have never been wrested before by the opposition. Even so, the chances are now higher that Prime Minister Najib Razak will take the victories as signs that public favour has returned to his coalition and call for snap general elections.
"Voters have called his bluff. There is no excuse now for Najib not to hold snap general elections and the possibility is high that there might be simultaneous national elections together with the Sarawak state polls,"
PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.
"On our side, Pakatan will intensify efforts to recapture lost ground."
According to unofficial statistics, BN beat Pakatan Rakyat by 2,724 votes at Kerdau. PAS' Hassanuddin Salim obtained 2,336 votes against Umno's Syed Ibrahim Syed Ahmad, who garnered 5,060. Umno's majority in the 2008 general election was 1,615 votes.
At Merlimau, PAS' Yuhaizad Abdullah obtained 2,319 votes compared to Umno candidate Roslan Ahmad's 5,962. The majority was 3,643 votes compared to 2,154 won by Umno in 2008.
"We will need to work harder to get the rural Malay vote," PKR communications director Nik Nazmi told Malaysia Chronicle.
Still a 2-2 draw
While conceding the losses to a swing in the rural Malay vote, Pakatan Rakyat leaders made it clear that despite the BN's recent wins, the score was still a 2-2 draw.
The only real losses from Pakatan to BN were PAS' Galas state seat to Umno and PKR's Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat to MIC last year. On BN's side the losses were the Sibu parliamentary seat to DAP and the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat to PAS.
The rest were just seats that were previously held and retained by either Umno or PAS.
"We don't want to make excuses but at the same time we don't want to panic. Yes, we have to work harder. But we must remember these are BN strongholds and by-elections where BN pumped in millions of ringgit to make the local folk happy when we had to reserve our funds for the coming GE," PAS vice president Mahfuz Omar told Malaysia Chronicle.
"So let us woker harder, but also, let us retain some perspective. If BN wants to boast about the victories and get swell-headed, let them."
Pakatan invested less resources, lacked Indian strategy
In Kerdau, there were 8,999 registered voters - 88.7 per cent of whom are Malays, five per cent Chinese, 3.3 per cent Indians, 2.6 per cent Orang Asli, 2.4 per cent other races and 0.01 per cent Sarawak bumiputera.
As for Merlimau, there are 10,679 registered voters of whom 64.9 per cent are Malay, 20.8 percent Chinese, 14.8 percent Indian voters and 0.2 other races.
"Most people were expecting the BN to win with bigger majorities in both these seats given that they are BN strongholds. Secondly, I think the DAP didn't put in much resources to campaign in the non-Malay areas knowing that their support base here is low and little use to 'invest' in the larger areas of Kuala Kerdau and Jasin unlike Tenang because DAP contests the Labis parliamentary seat (under which Tenang falls under)," political analyst Ong Kian Ming told Malaysia Chronicle.
"Thirdly, I think Pakatan needs to admit that it does not have a coherent strategy to stem the loss of votes from amongst the Indian community since i think part of the big swing back to the BN, especially in Merlimau, is the result of the swing in the Indian vote. Fourthly, how will PAS react after their 4th consecutive by-election defeat in 2 years? It would be interesting to see if it resorts to its old ways of reaching out to the Malay ground by ramping up the Islamic card."
Snap GE
Snap polls have been the talk of town for months now even though Najib does not need to hold elections until 2013. Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim believes that Najib cannot afford to wait although the BN-controlled mainstream media have been warning that Najib had decided to wait for 2012.
"The economy will worsen in the months ahead. Prices will continue to shoot up and this will make the BN very unpopular. I think Najib will try to secure a fresh mandate as early as possible, and yes, I am still looking at this year and within the next few months," Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim told Malaysia Chronicle.
In the 2008 general election, the BN coalition led by then prime minister Abdullah Badawi had suffered a shock electoral setback, losing its long-held two-thirds parliamentary majority and control of 5 of the country's 13 states to Anwar's Pakatan.
But although it may seem like BN has the upperhand, many political watchers believe that simultaneous polls with Sarawak were unlikely. If at all the 13th GE was held this year, it would in the latter half, they added.
"The swing in the vote for the BN in both areas were expected. It shouldn't distract Najib from systematically carrying out his agenda e.g. delivery of the Economic Transformation Program and Government Transformation Program before calling for the next GE. That will take at least 3 to 6 months to complete," said Kian Ming.
"Whereas Sarawak state elections are anticipated by May, latest. The Election Commission also won't be ready to have a GE in the next 3 months."
Kian Ming had predicted a BN majority of 2,500 votes in Kerdau and 4,000 in Merlimau.
BN euphoric
Meanwhile, Umno leaders were euphoric about the victories, while MCA began their traditional public argument with DAP over the Chinese vote. PAS admitted it lost big in the three Felda settlement areas in Kerdau, while DAP refuted MCA claims that Chinese support had shifted back to BN.
"These are setbacks for Pakatan. It means the road ahead is not easy and not to be taken for granted. Let's await the full analysis before making claims," said DAP adviser Lim Kit Siang.
Meanwhile,
although the victory margin was below the landslide predicted by polls forecasters, Malacca Mentri Besar Ali Rustam was triumphant.
"I was worried not about losing but about winning with a small majority, so I told the voters if the majority is small, I wouldn't be able to work as hard for them. But now that is not a problem. We will fulfill all the campaign promises," he told a press conference.
Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin too refused to give any hint of when the 13th GE will be, but admitted the Kerdau and Merlimau victories enhanced the feel-good factor for the BN.
"I hope the results can be repeated in the next general elections, but I don't know when it will be," he told reporters.
"Voters have called his bluff. There is no excuse now for Najib not to hold snap general elections and the possibility is high that there might be simultaneous national elections together with the Sarawak state polls,"
PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.
"On our side, Pakatan will intensify efforts to recapture lost ground."
According to unofficial statistics, BN beat Pakatan Rakyat by 2,724 votes at Kerdau. PAS' Hassanuddin Salim obtained 2,336 votes against Umno's Syed Ibrahim Syed Ahmad, who garnered 5,060. Umno's majority in the 2008 general election was 1,615 votes.
At Merlimau, PAS' Yuhaizad Abdullah obtained 2,319 votes compared to Umno candidate Roslan Ahmad's 5,962. The majority was 3,643 votes compared to 2,154 won by Umno in 2008.
Still a 2-2 draw
While conceding the losses to a swing in the rural Malay vote, Pakatan Rakyat leaders made it clear that despite the BN's recent wins, the score was still a 2-2 draw.
The only real losses from Pakatan to BN were PAS' Galas state seat to Umno and PKR's Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat to MIC last year. On BN's side the losses were the Sibu parliamentary seat to DAP and the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat to PAS.
The rest were just seats that were previously held and retained by either Umno or PAS.
"We don't want to make excuses but at the same time we don't want to panic. Yes, we have to work harder. But we must remember these are BN strongholds and by-elections where BN pumped in millions of ringgit to make the local folk happy when we had to reserve our funds for the coming GE," PAS vice president Mahfuz Omar told Malaysia Chronicle.
"So let us woker harder, but also, let us retain some perspective. If BN wants to boast about the victories and get swell-headed, let them."
Pakatan invested less resources, lacked Indian strategy
In Kerdau, there were 8,999 registered voters - 88.7 per cent of whom are Malays, five per cent Chinese, 3.3 per cent Indians, 2.6 per cent Orang Asli, 2.4 per cent other races and 0.01 per cent Sarawak bumiputera.
As for Merlimau, there are 10,679 registered voters of whom 64.9 per cent are Malay, 20.8 percent Chinese, 14.8 percent Indian voters and 0.2 other races.
"Thirdly, I think Pakatan needs to admit that it does not have a coherent strategy to stem the loss of votes from amongst the Indian community since i think part of the big swing back to the BN, especially in Merlimau, is the result of the swing in the Indian vote. Fourthly, how will PAS react after their 4th consecutive by-election defeat in 2 years? It would be interesting to see if it resorts to its old ways of reaching out to the Malay ground by ramping up the Islamic card."
Snap GE
Snap polls have been the talk of town for months now even though Najib does not need to hold elections until 2013. Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim believes that Najib cannot afford to wait although the BN-controlled mainstream media have been warning that Najib had decided to wait for 2012.
"The economy will worsen in the months ahead. Prices will continue to shoot up and this will make the BN very unpopular. I think Najib will try to secure a fresh mandate as early as possible, and yes, I am still looking at this year and within the next few months," Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim told Malaysia Chronicle.
But although it may seem like BN has the upperhand, many political watchers believe that simultaneous polls with Sarawak were unlikely. If at all the 13th GE was held this year, it would in the latter half, they added.
"The swing in the vote for the BN in both areas were expected. It shouldn't distract Najib from systematically carrying out his agenda e.g. delivery of the Economic Transformation Program and Government Transformation Program before calling for the next GE. That will take at least 3 to 6 months to complete," said Kian Ming.
"Whereas Sarawak state elections are anticipated by May, latest. The Election Commission also won't be ready to have a GE in the next 3 months."
Kian Ming had predicted a BN majority of 2,500 votes in Kerdau and 4,000 in Merlimau.
BN euphoric
Meanwhile, Umno leaders were euphoric about the victories, while MCA began their traditional public argument with DAP over the Chinese vote. PAS admitted it lost big in the three Felda settlement areas in Kerdau, while DAP refuted MCA claims that Chinese support had shifted back to BN.
"These are setbacks for Pakatan. It means the road ahead is not easy and not to be taken for granted. Let's await the full analysis before making claims," said DAP adviser Lim Kit Siang.
Meanwhile,
"I was worried not about losing but about winning with a small majority, so I told the voters if the majority is small, I wouldn't be able to work as hard for them. But now that is not a problem. We will fulfill all the campaign promises," he told a press conference.
Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin too refused to give any hint of when the 13th GE will be, but admitted the Kerdau and Merlimau victories enhanced the feel-good factor for the BN.
"I hope the results can be repeated in the next general elections, but I don't know when it will be," he told reporters.
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