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Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Intrigue within Sabah Umno

Luke Rintod

Sabah contributes a major chunk of cash to the federal coffers and that's the reason why Umno must keep its grip on its 'fixed deposit'.

KOTA KINABALU: Politics in Sabah is never boring and it is again taking on the air of a soap opera complete with prima donnas, villains, scoundrels and clowns waiting in the wings before going centre stage in the second biggest state in Malaysia.

Come Feb 16, Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak will be in Sabah again for specific programmes in Sipitang, Tawau, and of course in the state capital where he will get the chance to meet all Barisan Nasional leaders.

But, insiders claimed, it is not always the public functions that matter, but what goes on away from the spotlight and in the shadows where such skulduggery belongs.

Sabah has only 25 parliamentary seats, a mere fraction of the 222 nationwide, but it has a crucial power that can make or break the BN and Najib.

Apart from being one of the three richest states in term of natural oil and gas resources and contributing a major chunk to the federal coffers, Sabah is considered a BN “fixed deposit” and if it falls so will Putrajaya.

BN currently has nearly total control in Sabah, having lost only the state capital seat to DAP in 2008 and then later another two in Tawau and Sepanggar when one-time Umno ally, the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), left the coalition soon after the last general election.

SAPP had tried to use a revolt against former prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to call for the overthrow of the BN, but the move fizzled and hastened Najib’s ascendance to power.

Rivalry within Sabah Umno


Many believe it will be smooth-sailing for the BN again in Sabah. On the surface yes, but a deeper study shows that there could also be disaster ahead for the BN if Najib mishandles Sabah in the coming polls.

Anwar Ibrahim’s PKR, many observers believe, mishandled Sabah matters on the approach of the last general election, which resulted in Sabahans, especially Christians, deserting the opposition camp.

BN’s current concerns in Sabah are the sizeable native Kadazandusun population who control a substantial number of parliamentary seats and could be shifting support to the State Reform Party or STAR brought in by former PKR leader Jeffrey Kitingan.

If the Kadazandusuns move en masse to the opposition it could spell trouble for the ruling coalition.
Najib’s other concern is the “rivalry” within Sabah Umno.

Political analysts and insiders said the issue involves Chief Minister Musa Aman, Umno vice- president Shafie Apdal and, to a certain extent, State Legislative Assembly Speaker, Salleh Said Keruak.

“Musa, buoyed by solid support from peers like Salleh, still wants to serve as chief minister but Shafie, having been elected Umno vice-president, also wants to show his ability to develop the vast state,” said one analyst.

Another analyst, who also requested anonymity, added: “Mind you, Shafie is the envy of Musa and others as his Rural and Regional Development Ministry carries no less than RM4 billion yearly worth of development funds and he is quite independent in disbursing some of the funds in Sabah.”

Thrown into this mix is Umno stalwart Lajim Ukin, who is rumoured to be moving to another small Sabah political party.

Lajim matter settled

But Lajim has already missed a few dates “to announce an important decision”. Some supporters have now brushed him aside saying he has been placated. Word has it that Lajim has just received a RM150 million road contract.

The fact is Lajim never needed a “panadol” as Sabah is Najib’s headache.

The moment Lajim got news that he would be “dropped”, news of him leaving Umno began surfacing everywhere. During Christmas last year, Lajim was said to have visited Sabah PKR division leader John Ghani’s house and and had urged those present to support Pakatan Rakyat.

He had also apparently met with PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim to discuss possibilities.

A few weeks ago, the road to his constituency in Beaufort was the only road that had the most flags of the Sabah Peoples’ Front (SPF), an opposition party, flying despite barely having the finances to make them.

But even if Lajim’s revolt has been defused and other Umno would-be deserters discouraged, Najib is left with the Musa, Shafie and Salleh intrigue.

The trio want payback for helping Najib retain power in Putrajaya. All three have ensured Sabah has remained a BN fixed deposit.

While Musa and Shafie delivered and were rewarded in 2008, Salleh, though not renominated, remained loyal to Umno.

Had anyone of the trio left, the power equation after the 2008 could have been different.

Musa’s strength is in winning allies in other component parties. He has Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) at his command to deliver the Kadazandusun votes and Upko, too, was listening to Musa though occasionally barking for attention, only to be swiftly soothed by Najib.

“Upko was smart and kept repeating its tactic. They learnt that when you make threats, something good would come to cool you down,” said an observer.

He noted that recently Upko-linked entities were awarded oil and gas works worth billions of ringgit.

“We don’t know for how long this will happen, but it seems it is the order of the day; everything will be settled, either through money, projects or positions.

“That is how it is when you are needed by Umno and BN,” he said.

Rosmah factor

Shafie, who hails from Semporna, a small coastal town in the east coast of Sabah now boasting many successful contractors and entrepreneurs, is of course waiting in the wings.

Some said he has the tacit support of Najib and is also close to Najib’s deputy, Muhyiddin Yassin, who ironically is also waiting in the wings to take over from his boss.

One wrong step, and Muhyiddin comes in, maybe with the support of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad who still wields some clout in the Umno hierarchy.

Najib cannot afford to let Shafie drift too far from him. Perhaps that is why he has such a cash-laden portfolio in Najib’s Cabinet that allows him to negate Musa’s riches.

But will Shafie be contented there?

It an open secret that his boys are lobbying Najib and of course smartly enough Muhyiddin for him to be fielded in a state constituency in the coming polls.

The political grapevine also has it that Najib’s wife, Rosmah Mansor, who also wields enormous influence in the government, in Umno as well as at home, is said to be averse to Shafie but fond of Musa.

It is because of her, some say, along with the backing of PBS, Umno’s strongest ally in Sabah, that Najib retained Musa as chief minister after the 2008 general election.

But PBS is said to be losing its power base to new kid, STAR, something that is yet to be tested beyond the consistently overwhelming attendance at STAR political ceramahs.

STAR is headed by Jeffrey Kitingan, who is the younger brother of PBS chief Joseph Pairin Kitingan.

It’s a gamble in Sabah

STAR’s membership in Sabah is said to have reached the 100,000 mark only weeks after it was launched here on Jan 6 this year, and this is a worry to PBS, and perhaps even Musa.

“It appears that if Najib decides to replace Musa as chief minister, the post looks likely to go to Shafie as Salleh has been there before.

“Salleh may be Musa’s deputy in Sabah Umno but he is junior to Shafie who is an elected vice- president, a position that no other Sabahan has been able to attain in Umno before.

“But (if it was a choice) between Salleh and Shafie, the leaders of PBS and Upko would likely choose the former as their preferred boss.

“The reason is simple: Salleh has Dusun blood in him, and his wife is a Dusun from Tuaran so he has a fair understanding of how to work the Kadazandusun mind,” said a BN insider.

The big question is, with the Kadazandusun grassroots supposedly shifting to STAR, would it be worth Najib’s while to listen to PBS and Upko or even PBRS?

The next question on Najib’s mind would be how to win over Jeffrey’s STAR, if it does snatch seats from PBS, Upko and PBRS in the coming election.

Analysts said Jeffrey would be able to work with either Musa or Salleh forcing Najib to sacrifice Shafie and depend on the two to win STAR’s co-operation and at the same time contain any opposition gains in Sabah.

With these odds, Sabah is a gamble. Without Sabah and Sarawak, Putrajaya could drift out of reach of Najib’s grasp.

The ultimate goal of both BN and Pakatan Rakyat is winning a simple majority in Parliament and both have a fair chance at the prize.

54 comments:

  1. Macam kurang pemimpin saja Sabah UMNO ni.Musa,Salleh,Shafie.Mana yang lain?Bagus undi pembangkang la.

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    1. Pembangkang pun terumbang-ambing. Apa macam? Belum ada petanda positif mencapai kata sepakat. Silap-silap undi pecah dan sekali lagi laluan mudah kepada BN untuk menang.

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    2. Jika pembangkang tidak sanggup bekerjasama, sudah pasti mereka akan kalah jika undian dipecah-pecahkan. Fikri-fikirlah.

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    3. pembangkang??? biar banyak macam mana pun parti pembangkang, parti komponen BN masih boleh menang.

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    4. tiada sepakatan antara pembangkang di sabah...BN akan menang..

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    5. voting opposition will not 100% guarantee sabah a better future. For all you know, they could be more worse than the current government.

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    6. we shouldn't have this mind set that voting any opposition party will promise sabah a better future. Best to evaluate each party wisely and the candidate. Vote wisely!

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    7. pembangkang lagi teruk dan di boleh diharap.

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    8. Buli bah kalau mau undi pembakang tapi pembakang pun boleh percaya ka???

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    9. pembangkang pun banyak masalah..asyik mau begaduh saja..

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    10. pembangkang pun itu2 juga pemimpin dia.. mana yang lain??

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  2. Seribu kali jumpa PM dan seribu kali mesyuarat dengan PM pun tidak guna kalau takut bersuara.Semua pentingkan jawatan dan kocek.Rakyat menderita oleh harga barang yang naik mendedak daripada A-Z,kemiskinan,peluang perniagaan yang semakin hari berkurangan dan banyak lagi.YB BN jadi kaya raya dan mengaut keuntungan daripada projek-projek yang di beri oleh Musa.Keluarga Musa pun makin kaya raya dan sapu semua projek.Apa yang tinggal untuk rakyat biasa?

    PM tau tapi diam saja.Kalau ini berterusan rakyat akan 'fed-up' dan itu lah sebabnya pembangkang sudah semakin kuat di Sabah.PM patut mempunyai KM yang bersih supaya rakyat Sabah dapat berdiri teguh dengan bangga di belakang pemimpin tersebut.Sekarang ini,aiyoyoo,kroni lah,majukan keluarga sendiri lah,rasuah lah,gila kuasa lah,entah apa lagi.Semua angkara PM kerana terlalu takut bertindak.3 bulan lagi begini hancur BN di Sabah.

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    1. Lumrah manusia, bila sudah berkuasa tentu saudara-mara dan rakan rapat yang akan dibantu terlebih dahulu. Satu kelebihan bah tu bila ada kedudukan dan wang. Tapi itulah, sendiri mahu ingat. Jangan sampai lupa tanggungjawab yang utama.

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    2. Setuju, jika tidak sanggup bersuara tiada gunanya berjumpa seribu kali. Harap pemimpin akan lantang menyuarakan masalah yang dihadapi oleh rakyat supaya pemimpin tertinggi boleh membantu mencari jalan.

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    3. pemimpin2 Sabah harus berani menyuarakan suara2 rakyat dan suara2 lebih kepada keutamaan Sabah dan rakyat Sabah.

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    4. jadi siapa tu "KM yang bersih"? ada cadangan kah?

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    5. no such thing as clean CM because eventually they will get suck into greed. Money and power will only be in their mind.

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    6. pemimpin Sabah harus tampil suarakan isi hati mereka kepada PM. ini untuk kepentingan Sabah jg.

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    7. Itu maksudnya, masing2 sibuk jaga hubungan baik supaya jawatan dapat dikekalkan biarpun rakyat dah hampir mati kesusahan!!! Bikin panas!

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  3. PKR needs to depend on Sabahan and Sarawakian voters to win over Putrajaya, but are they really sincere in helping the people?

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    Replies
    1. Dalam politik, tiadalah istilah ikhlas 100%.

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    2. Setiap parti hanya mementingkan diri, tiada perbezaan mengundi mana-mana satu.

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    3. mana2 parti politik sama saja...kepentingan parti adalah lebih utama..

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    4. Hard to tell whether a leader is actually sincere helping the people.

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    5. only god knows whether they are sincere.

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    6. benarkah PKR ikhlas atau hanya untuk mendapatkan undi saja? rakyat nilailah dengan sebaiknya.

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  4. We'll see which party will gain the most votes during the next general elections, would Star gain the support they needed?

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    Replies
    1. mungkin juga...tetapi dapatkah Star bertanding di bawah bendera mereka sendiri nanti? dengar2 Star Sabah tidak diiktiraf oleh ROS..

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    2. Star party is just a simple party.

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    3. semakin banyak parti di Sabah ni.mungkin persaingan sengit akan berlaku.

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  5. Interesting !! It is always unpredictiable for the politics in Sabah. Who will be our next CM ??!!God knows!

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    Replies
    1. kita tunggu dan lihat..

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    2. hopefully the next cm will be a better leader than the current one.

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    3. poliik di Sabah memang sukar untuk diramalkan..

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  6. The affairs of politics will always remain unpredictable.

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  7. All candidates are wished the best.

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  8. They all need the support of the people to win; nevertheless victory goes to the people’s choice.

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  9. Major responsibility towards the public should not be neglected.

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  10. The leaders should speak on behalf of the people so that help can be done asap.

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    Replies
    1. the leaders need to be daring to stand up for the people. Its their responsibility to be the people's voice.

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  11. 54 tahun BNUMNO memerintah Malaysia dan kini budaya kotor dan keji telah dibawa ke Sabah sehingga Sabah kini telah dipenuhi oleh PATAI warganegara ekspress perbuatan UMNO diasaskan oleh Mahathir paling Dibenci kerana melakukan penipuan dan jenayah terjahat di Malaysia!

    Sudah tiba masanya BNUMNO dijatuhkan!
    ABU!

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    Replies
    1. so which opposition party do you propose the people to vote??Don't forget there are many party in sabah.

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  12. BN/UMNO is facing a lot of internal problem.. Those problems will be an advantage for the opposition to get the people support.

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    1. Those opposition has no rights to talk about promises to the people, empty promises all there's for them.

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  13. politics can be very unpredictable. Its difficult to tell who will the coming election. But most importantly that all candidates must be sincere in helping the people.

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    Replies
    1. Indeed but they have to maximize strategies to be the best.

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  14. Repeatedly said, BN will not be broken.

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  15. We have the most complicated politic in Asia ==

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  16. Setiap parti politik mempunyai kelemahan.

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    Replies
    1. That's why many opposition parties are meeting the downfall.

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  17. Kerajaan perlu lebih peka akan perkara yang berkaitan dengan kepentingan rakyat.

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  18. semua parti pasti berusaha untuk menang..mana yang terbaik, itulah yang akan mendapat sokongan rakyat.

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  19. whatever issues raised by the oppositions, if they still unable to unite with other oppositions, then please stop dreaming la..

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