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Tuesday, January 6, 2015

The Enigma called Sabah

In an earlier article (The unhappiness in Sabah and Sarawak) I touched on various issues, in particular regarding how important Sabah and Sarawak are to Barisan Nasional, and hence to Umno as well, and how BN-Umno needs Sabah and Sarawak to stay in power. It is not an understatement when we say that Sabah and Sarawak are BN’s ‘fixed deposit’ and even the Prime Minister himself admits this.

There is much criticism regarding Sabah (not so much regarding Sarawak now that the long-serving Sarawak Chief Minister has retired and has handed power to his successor). However, we find that the criticisms are all lumped into one as if it is a single ‘disease’ that requires a one-cure type of solution. Actually, the Sabah situation needs to be broken down into urban grouses, rural grouses, unhappiness against the federal government, and unhappiness against the Chief Minister, Musa Aman.

Hence, simply put, we need to dissect the various Sabah issues into different categories and address each of the categories separately. To lump them all into one would be just like looking at the issues of the Chinese in Kuala Lumpur with those of the Malays in Gua Musang. The KL Chinese and Gua Musang Malays do not share the same issues and a one-cure solution, therefore, would not solve the problem. (When I talk about ‘KL Chinese’ we can, of course, include the Kelang Valley or Selangor Chinese as well).

For example, the KL Chinese might complain that there are too many restrictions regarding the setting up of churches (and that many churches need to operate from shop-houses or factory lots). However, the Malays in Gua Musang do not have this complaint. So, solving the problem of churches does not affect the Malays in Gua Musang; only the Chinese in KL/Selangor.

The same applies to the issues in Sabah as well. Do Sabahans in the rural areas share the unhappiness or complaints of the Chinese (or elite class) in the urban areas and towns in Sabah? That is what we need to explore because much of our feedback is from the more vocal urbanites and it is being presented as if the entire population of Sabah feel the same way. I fear we may be hearing only one side of the story and the story from the minority/urbanites on top of that.

One test I have done is when someone tells me about the ‘problems’ in Sabah I immediately ask them to list down those problems. Now, immediately, tell me what those problems are! I find that these people appear hesitant and comment that they would need to think about it and maybe get back to me later with the details.

If you know that there are problems in Sabah then you would know what these problems are and the issues or complaints would be at the tip of your tongue. You should be able to tell me from the top of your head what they are. You would not need to think about it first and do some research first and then get back to me later. Hence I find it very suspicious and wonder whether these so-called problems are genuine or just issues fabricated to criticise the Chief Minister.

No doubt some of these complaints are real and need to be addressed. For example, the issue of illegal immigrants, plus the problem of drugs and crime, which are related to the problem of the illegal immigrants, are real issues. The security problem and the issue of piracy and kidnappings are also real issues. The government, both federal and state, needs to be perceived as addressing these issues in a serious manner. There must be a political will to resolve all these. And this is what appears to be lacking, the political will.

However, as I said, the opposition (plus the Chinese, even those from Barisan Nasional) are those complaining about the illegal immigrants problem. But the illegal immigrants issue itself can be broken down into two categories. First are those illegal immigrants who are really illegal. Second are those immigrants who have been ‘legalised’ with ICs.

The opposition (plus the Chinese, even those from Barisan Nasional) are not only unhappy about the real illegal immigrants, they are also unhappy about those who have been ‘legalised’ (what they refer to as ‘Projek IC’). They realise that this is Barisan Nasional’s ‘voter bank’. But do the rural Sabahans also feel the same as those in the urban areas (in particular the opposition and Chinese)? And how much of a problem are the illegal immigrants to those who live in the rural areas?

This is something I cannot reply to unless I go down to the rural areas to do my own opinion poll or survey because my feedback is mainly from the urban Sabahans, mainly those ‘yang ada duit’ so to speak. Hence I reserve comment regarding this and sum it up as this may not be a complaint by all Sabahans but only those Sabahans opposed to Barisan Nasional.

If so, then this would mean that solving the problem is not going to change anything because those opposed to Barisan Nasional would still oppose Barisan Nasional even if you kick one million illegal immigrants out of Sabah, even those with ICs.

That is my opinion on the matter, but not based on any scientific study, I must add.

The next point is regarding the 20-Point Agreement and ‘federalisation’. This is the complaint I receive, but again, as I said, from the urban Sabahans who feel that Sabah is being ‘colonised’ by West Malaysia. Is this also how rural Sabahans feel? Again, I do not know. But this is certainly how urban Sabahans feel. But then urbanites all over Malaysia are anti-government anyway.

Nevertheless, this needs to be addressed because there is some truth that Sabah (and Sarawak) has lost some of its autonomy and there is much federal control in the state machinery. Sabahans must be made to feel that they have some measure of self-rule and that they are not being colonised by West Malaysia.

Then there is the issue of the oil royalty where Sabahans are demanding that the 5% be increased to 20%. The question we need to ask is, though, which Sabahans? All Sabahans, including those in the rural areas, or only those politician Sabahans who are using this as a political issue? I have not done an opinion poll on this and my feedback is from the ‘upper class’ Sabahans, political activists, and those opposed to the government. Hence is this the popular view or the minority view? I would not be in a position to answer that question unless I spend some time travelling in the rural areas to speak to the people there.

Some feedback I do receive is regarding the Chief Minister, Musa Aman. Many are not happy with him. But when I ask them what specifically is wrong with Musa Aman, I do not seem to get an immediate response. Again, they need to think about it, do some research, and get back to me later.

Now, if I am not happy with someone, and you ask me what it is I am not happy about, I can immediately give you a ‘ceramah’. I do not need to think about it first or do some research and get back to you later. Hence I am not sure whether there are any real issues against Musa Aman or whether this is the normal ‘political jealousy’ (or the opposition attitude of not being happy with the Chief Minister because he is from Barisan Nasional).

One thing they tell me is that Musa Aman has been Chief Minister for too long, more than 11 years. That is their complaint against Musa Aman — too long in office. But when I ask them, “So what? What’s the problem with a Chief Minister being in office for 11 years?” they have no response.

Being in office for 11 years is not a crime. So why oppose him because he has been in office ‘too long’? Those who raise this issue cannot give a valid and credible response to this. Hence I regard this as ‘political jealousy’.

Sabah needs to see more rural development. Currently, as is the same for most parts of Malaysia, development is concentrated in the urban areas. Hence this is not just a Sabah problem but also a problem for all Malaysia. Travel to some parts of the East Coast of West Malaysia and see how the people there live.

To be included in the rural development for Sabah should be an improved and more extensive railway system. Sabah’s railway was built in 1896 and currently consists of a single 134 km line from Tanjung Aru, near Kota Kinabalu, to the town of Tenom, in the interior. This means the railway only runs along the west coast of Sabah and does not reach Sandakan, Lahad Datu, Semporna, Tawau, etc.

The government should consider this and announce, say, a 20-year plan, to extend the railway to these other major towns. This is going to be the largest single project in Sabah (if not in Malaysia) and will be seen as a great improvement for Sabah. Land prices would increase and development would come to those areas that the railway reaches.

More importantly, Musa Aman would get the credit for upgrading the railway system, which is more than 125 years old and quite outdated.

The other complaint is regarding development projects that are going to Musa Aman’s cronies. This has been a complaint since more than ten years ago but this does not seem to affect voter support in Sabah. Again, this complaint comes from the upper class in Sabah and not from the rural voters or ‘working class’. So is this a complaint from the rakyat or just from the ‘gulungan elite’ and politicians? To be honest, I do not know because, as I said, I have not done an opinion poll in rural Sabah. Nevertheless, there is some truth in this allegation but then this is the same compliant all over Malaysia, even in Pakatan Rakyat states.

I do not have statistics for water and electricity supply: meaning how many percent of Sabahans still DO NOT have water and electricity supply. Nevertheless, by now it should be 100% or close to 100% and if not then the state needs to address this immediately.

Other than that I just cannot see what the shortcoming of Musa Aman or Barisan Nasional are. No doubt when we talk to Sabahans there appears to be much unhappiness. However, as I said, I talk to politicians from both BN and Pakatan plus to the ‘gulungan berada’. But do the normal rakyat or man-in-the-street feel the same way? Possibly regarding illegal immigrants, drugs, crime, security, kidnappings, piracy, etc., the opinions may be many. But as for whether this is the fault of Musa Aman personally is something that can be argued. Nevertheless, it would help if Musa Aman can issue some ‘strong statements’ on the issue and launch certain steps to try to resolve these issues to at least give an impression he is sincerely trying to do something.

At the end of the day, we must remember that the rakyat only want a decent life and security. If Sabah can provide this then that is all that matters. And this is the same the world over, even in advanced countries.

So, the million-dollar question is: is Musa Aman a bad Chief Minister? No one seems to be able to tell me. They grumble and make allegations but can’t seem to support these allegations with facts other than grumblings regarding corruption, cronyism and projects going to Musa Aman’s ‘kaki’. But even if this is so it is a Malaysian rather than Sabah problem. Whoever becomes the Sabah Chief Minister it is still going to be the same.

And one thing we must never forget, whoever becomes Chief Minister and how good this Chief Minister may be, the opposition and gulungan berada will still oppose the government. Musa Aman needs to demonstrate that he may not be perfect but he is still far better than anyone else. And this has to be in how he develops Sabah. And one ‘wow-factor’ can be the railway proposal I mentioned above. Musa Aman is going to launch what others have never done and can never do, upgrade the 125-year old and outdated railway system.

Politics, after all, is about perception. Hence there must be a perception that Musa Aman has done something different for Sabah, which those before him have not done. And the fate of BN in Sabah lies in the hands of the rural voters, not in the hands of the urban voters, who will still oppose the government come hell or high water.

By Raja Petra Kamarudin

Previous related article by RPK ....................................

The unhappiness in Sabah and Sarawak

The last Umno General Assembly can be said to have sent out mixed signals. Instead of replying to the many questions that people may have about what to expect in the run-up to the next general election expected in 2-3 years from now, it raised more questions than it answered. If people had followed the Umno general assembly with the hope of becoming enlightened, then they were disappointed because, instead, the reverse happened: they became more confused.

While the Umno General Assembly can be considered an internal party affair and only the business of Umno and of no one else outside Umno, in reality, the nation considers it more than just an Umno matter but a matter that affects the entire nation. And that is because Umno is the lead or dominant partner in the ruling coalition who decides not only what Umno does but also what Barisan Nasional does at well.

Hence what is decided at the Umno General Assembly will affect all Malaysians and also what is said and done at the assembly will be monitored by the entire nation. The Umno delegates do not speak just for their own party but for the whole country and the policies that are decided will invariably become the country’s policies.

And that is why the entire nation is listening to what is said and is watching what is done at the Umno General Assemblies every year.

Umno, therefore, has to decide what message it wants to send out because this message is not just for its own party members but also for all Malaysians. Unfortunately, the message Umno is sending out is confusing and tantamount to mixed signals. Umno is zigzagging and is trying to please the Malays as well as the non-Malays both at the same time. So, in one breath Umno says one thing and in the next it says the opposite.

Umno has to decide whether it wants to just play to the Malay gallery (and ignore the non-Malay gallery) or play to the non-Malay gallery as well. Umno cannot do both and be all things to all people (like Anwar Ibrahim is fond of doing when he says one thing to the Muslims and the opposite to the Jews).

If Umno wants to be a hardcore Malay nationalist party and just focus on the support of the Malays, then Umno must be prepared to lose the non-Malay support. It cannot be both ways.

However, if this is the route that Umno chooses (to focus just on the Malays), Umno must remember that this may suit the Malay voters in West Malaysia but that does not mean it also suits the Bumiputera voters of East Malaysia. Hence by strengthening itself with the Malays in West Malaysia, Umno may have to lose the support of the East Malaysian Bumiputeras.

This may not be the best strategy to adopt considering that Barisan Nasional, and that means Umno as well, rules with the support of many of the 57 seats from East Malaysia, Labuan included. Without the 57 East Malaysian seats, Umno will not be able to win enough seats to form the federal government, made worse by the fact that Barisan Nasional in West Malaysia is practically just Umno alone and there is not much contribution from MCA, MIC, Gerakan and PPP.

Hence Umno needs to strike a balance between the aspirations of the Malays in West Malaysia as well as the aspirations of the people of Sabah and Sarawak. And the rhetoric at the Umno assembly (plus the various government policies) must reflect this aspiration, which, unfortunately, it does not.

The government is always at a disadvantage. And this is the same the world over, the UK included. The opposition is able to criticise the government and promise the voters all sorts of things when it knows it will not win the election and, therefore, does not need to deliver these promises. However, once it comes to power, such as in some states in Malaysia, it is really not that easy to make good these promises after all. Selangor is one example.

But then the voters believe that once the government is changed these promises will be met (although there is no evidence of this and promises do not make them evidence). Voters all over the world are not really very clever. And that is why I always say that a parliamentary democracy is one of the worst systems of government because we are putting the power to choose the government in the hands of voters who are incapable of thinking.

Another thing we need to understand is that voters all over the world, never mind which country we are talking about, are basically very selfish people (only a handful are idealistic). They vote based on the concept of ‘what do I gain from voting for so-and-so’?

We can ask the question: why do the Chinese vote opposition? What do they gain? What they gain is simply the end of the Malay hegemony. Hence by voting opposition they can get rid of Malay political power and hence also end what they view as discrimination by the Malay government against the non-Malays. Therefore there is a personal gain in voting opposition.

Now let us talk about Sabah and Sarawak. What do the voters from Sabah and Sarawak gain by voting opposition? Barisan Nasional needs Sabah and Sarawak to stay in power. Without Sabah and Sarawak, Barisan Nasional is out of office. So that is what they gain, the end of Barisan Nasional rule.

Okay, so let us say they vote opposition and Barisan Nasional is kicked out because they lost the seats in Sabah and Sarawak. What gain is that to Sabah and Sarawak?

The gain to Sabah and Sarawak is that all their problems will be solved once Barisan Nasional is kicked out. Pakatan Rakyat has promised to give Sabah and Sarawak what they want and once Pakatan Rakyat is in power all these promises will be delivered. That, of course, is yet to be proven but elections are, after all, about promises.

First would be the 20-Point and 18-Point Agreements. The people in Sabah and Sarawak feel that these Agreements are being violated and once Pakatan Rakyat is in power these Agreements would be honoured and respected in full.

Next is the Oil Royalty. Currently it is only 5% and Sabah and Sarawak want it increased to 20%, which Pakatan Rakyat has promised they will get once the government changes.

The illegal immigrants and security problem in East Malaysia is another point of unhappiness which Pakatan Rakyat has promised to solve — and which the federal or Barisan Nasional government is perceived as not able to or not wanting to solve.

Autonomy is another issue. Too many of the key positions in Sabah and Sarawak are being held by federal officers or people from Semenanjung. They want locals to hold all these positions like in, say, Terengganu and Kelantan. In fact, the mentality of the people in Sabah and Sarawak is just like those from Terengganu and Kelantan. Hence if you comprehend how the people in Terengganu and Kelantan think then you will understand how those in Sabah and Sarawak think as well.

For example, a person from Besut cannot stand for elections in Kemaman (and vice versa) although both Besut and Kemaman are in the same state, Terengganu. The semangat kedaerahan is very strong. Imagine if a person from, say, Johor, was to be given a senior position in Terengganu.

And that was why when Dato’ Aziz Ibrahim from Kedah was appointed the SEDC Terengganu GM there was so much protest from Pemuda Umno Terengganu. They resented a Kedah man holding the post. And that is only one post, mind you. Imagine if many posts in Terengganu were held by outsiders.

Another very important point is that Sabah and Sarawak did not join Malaysia. Together with Singapore and Malaya, Sabah and Sarawak formed Malaysia. Hence Sabah and Sarawak are at par with Malaya (or West Malaysia) and Singapore (which has since left to become an independent island state).

Currently, Sabah and Sarawak are being treated as just two of the many states in Malaysia, at par with Perlis, Kelantan, Penang, Melaka, etc. Hence Sabah and Sarawak have been ‘downgraded’. In fact, most view Sabah and Sarawak as at par with Melaka and Penang, which also have Governors and Chief Ministers.

This is another bone of contention of Sabah and Sarawak and yet they do not have CPOs but Police Commissioners (who I am told flies a flag on their car). They also have their own immigration policy and can bar West Malaysians from entering Sabah and Sarawak, which Penang and Melaka cannot do.

This shows that Sabah and Sarawak are different and are of a higher status than the other states in West Malaysia. Hence Sabah and Sarawak have valid grounds to be upset about being treated as just another of the 13 states in Malaysia. And that is why they also get upset about having to celebrate Merdeka Day on 31st August every year. Sabah and Sarawak did not get Merdeka on 31st August 1957. They formed Malaysia on 16th September 1963.

This is a matter that needs to be addressed.

On the matter of the Oil Royalty, Sabah and Sarawak may be getting just 5% and not the 20% that they are asking for. However, the development aid that they get comes to more than 20% of the equivalent of the Oil Royalty. The people of Sabah and Sarawak do not see this because the federal government has not been able to highlight this fact.

What the federal government can do is to agree to the 20% but make Sabah and Sarawak pay for their own development (or at least some of it) from this 20% (just like in the case of Terengganu). At the end of the day it comes to the same thing. But then it will be seen like Sabah and Sarawak have got the 20% they are asking for while, in reality, after they pay for their own development (like Terengganu), it comes to the same thing.

The problem with this, though, is that the state, and not the federal government, decides on how the money is spent and what type of development is done in Sabah and Sarawak. The federal government loses some control over how the money is spent but then the people of Sabah and Sarawak are happy that the money is under their control and they decide what happens to the money.

We must remember that oil and gas have been around East Malaysia for more than 100 years, long before Merdeka in 1957 or the creation of Malaysia in 1963. Terengganu, however, got oil only in 1977, 20 years after Merdeka. Hence Sabah and Sarawak feel that the oil and gas belongs to them, unlike Terengganu where they feel that the oil and gas belongs to Malaysia.

UK has just announced that immigrants who are not employed are going to be kicked out of the country and those coming to the UK must first prove that they have jobs waiting for them before being allowed in. The reason for this is immigration is now a serious election issue and if the government does not resolve the immigration issue it is going to be kicked out very soon.

So UK, which is a very liberal country, is now facing problems regarding immigrants. Hence this is not just a problem for Malaysia or for Sabah and Sarawak. With the immigration problem comes the crime problem, the same for Sabah and Sarawak as well. It is understandable why the people in Sabah and Sarawak are unhappy when even in the UK it is the same thing.

There are not really that many issues to resolve — immigration, crime, oil royalty, autonomy, federalisation, and the 18-/20-Point Agreements. On the side, of course, are the Bible and Allah issues, which is not a Sabah/Sarawak problem but being exploited by the opposition as if they are.

But it needs a political will to address all these issues. And this is what appears to be missing — the political will to resolve these issues. Added to this is the problem of warlords, especially in Sabah, who are plotting the downfall of the Chief Minister and hence are duri dalam daging, which does not help as well.


By Raja Petra Karamudin

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