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Sunday, November 1, 2015

Shape up or get shipped out of Selangor, analysts warn Pakatan

KUALA LUMPUR - If DAP, PKR, PAS and its offshoot Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) fail to come together before the 14th general election, analysts believe Barisan Nasional (BN) could reclaim control of Selangor, the country’s wealthiest and most industrialised state.

They warned that Selangor voters, either tired of the parties’ perpetual bickering or confused by the lack of a clear alternative to BN, could decide to end the current administration’s brief two-term rule.

Political scientist Dr Faisal Hazis pointed out that in the 2008 and 2013 general elections, DAP, PKR and PAS had succeeded in presenting a united front against BN, which he said was what helped the three claim victory in Selangor, and other states.

“They might lose Selangor if they can’t resolve their problems. Back in 2008 and 2013, they came together, formed a coalition; and they came up with cost-cutting measures that cut across ethnic groups,” the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Institute of Malaysian and International Studies (IKMAS) associate professor told Malay Mail Online.

But in their current fractured state – PKR is struggling to hold the fort in Selangor with its allies in DAP and PAS no longer on friendly terms – Faisal said voters are fast forgetting the message of unity the parties preached during the polls.

“People may go for the devil they know rather than the devil they don’t,” he warned.

In the tumultuous 2008 federal polls, BN lost control of its most prized state of Selangor to opposition parties DAP, PKR and PAS, and three others, namely Penang, Perak and Kedah, while PAS retained Kelantan.

The parties went on that year to form Pakatan Rakyat (PR), a loose alliance whose members were united mostly over their ambition to win federal power from BN and appoint Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim prime minister.

Since then, much of this has unravelled. Hostilities between DAP and PAS over their differing views on key policies, especially the latter’s hudud bid in Kelantan, saw the two parties decide in June to call it quits.

The decision, according to the DAP, naturally meant that the seven-year-old pact was now dead. It went on to start a new pact – Pakatan Harapan – along with PKR and Amanah, a new party formed by PAS’s ousted DAP-friendly progressives.

The situation has created uncertainty on the opposition front, particularly in Selangor, which currently counts members from both DAP and PAS as well as PKR as part of its administrative team.

Presumably to resolve the imbroglio or at least to keep the Selangor government out of BN’s hands, PKR has said it will maintain ties with both DAP and PAS.

Selangor Mentri Besar Azmin Ali, who is also PKR deputy president, even said recently that Selangor and Penang’s differing situations meant that a Pakatan Harapan government was not needed in his state.

PAS only holds one state seat in DAP-dominated Penang, while the Islamist party accounts for 13 of the Selangor state assembly against DAP’s 15, PKR’s 13, Barisan Nasional’s 12, Amanah’s two seats and one independent assemblyman.

But how long can this formula work?

Wan Saiful Wan Jan, head of the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs, is all for the idea of different electoral pacts on the opposition front, believing that this is an indication of “maturity”.

“In practise, there is absolutely nothing wrong in having Pakatan Rakyat at the Selangor government level and Pakatan Harapan at the federal level... That is normal and in fact, it indicates an increased maturity of the democratic processes in Malaysia,” he told Malay Mail Online.

“Coalitions can even be formed after the general elections and I don’t see a problem if DAP wants to work only with PKR in Penang and PAS wants to work with PKR Selangor.

“DAP can also form its own coalition with Amanah in Johor for example. State decisions should be confined strictly to states and not be brought up to the federal level,” he explained.

But Wan Saiful agreed that the differing structures do not mean the parties need not work with one another on policies, adding that without their coming together, losing voters was a very real possibility.

“It really depends on how politicians from the non-BN side behave. If they continue to behave like children, I think voters will feel tired of them and vote them out,” he said.

Dr Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, agreed that the opposition’s squabbling would only confuse voters and possibly lead to some abstaining from casting their ballots during the polls.

“Certainly, it will only confuse the voters, even making them unwilling to vote as the choices are not clear,” he said.

He said the parties must set aside their ideological differences and focus on uniting against BN, sticking to issues that affect voters’ livelihood such as transport, crime and employment.

Echoing this, Faisal said the parties must to revert to their previous promises that centre on good governance, democracy and transparency.

“I’ve said it many times that for the opposition to have any chance of defending the states they’ve won or gain further ground or in capturing federal power, they need to go back to their old formula which is they need to ensure a strong coalition with a straight fight with BN,” he said.

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