"BN leaders in self-denial, no 2/3 for BN Sarawak"

Kota Kinabalu, 14 April 2011: Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) President Datuk Yong Teck Lee, today said the confidence expressed by top BN leaders Dato Seri Najib, his deputy Tan Sri Muhyddin, Tan Sri Taib Mahmud and Tan Sri George Chan that the BN will win a two thirds majority in Sarawak this Saturday reveals that they are still in self-denial. Contrary to what BN says, the political wind is blowing away from the BN towards the opposition and reaching the rural areas. The opposition parties only have to be careful on the last two days of campaigning and last two hours of polling when the BN could unleash their last minute tricks.

Even if the BN gets a simple majority of seats due to the split opposition votes, the popular vote of the Sarawak BN is likely to fall below 50% for the first time in Sarawak history. In the 2001 elections, the Sarawak BN had obtained 72% of the popular vote, including an overwhelming majority of the urban and Chinese votes. In the 2006 elections, the popular vote was down to 53%.

This mandate has been further eroded by BN's neglect of key issues affecting the people such as land, rising prices, over concentration of power in one man, severe constraints in doing business and gross abuses of power and massive corruption. But no action has been taken by the BN federal authorities against their Sarawak BN counter parts.

What we have seen in Sarawak is not Federal-State co-operation but Federal-State collusion. Hence, on April 16, the support will be withdrawn by the majority of Sarawakians. It does not matter what Prime Minster Najib says about Taib stepping down. Taib has long over stayed his welcome.

After the losses this Saturday, Tan Sri Taib will blame the "stupid" act of KL in the Bible stamping issue. Federal leaders will in turn blame Taib for his excesses and not stepping down earlier while other BN leaders will blame both Taib and KL (for the bible stamping issue). At the end of the day, the BN fixed deposit would have been forfeited. The loss of the BN fixed deposit in Sarawak will re-energise the opposition parties that there is renewed hope in toppling the BN at the coming national general elections.

This brings us to the other "fixed deposit" state of Sabah. The Taib-Musa comparison is already making its rounds among the people in Sabah. Groups within BN opposed to Chief Minister Datuk Musa will use the Sarawak losses as a comparison that there should also be a change of CM in Sabah before the next general elections. This will set off another round of internal conflict in the BN that will weaken the BN.

After the shock losses at Sarawak, it is likely that the general elections will be postponed so that the BN will have more time to re-engineer the electoral process. Postal votes might be increased by including RELA, civil defence and other government personnel. Phantom votes and issuance of citizenships to illegals and their registration as voters would be expedited. With two more years to go, it is still possible for the federal government to re-draw the electoral boundaries to benefit the BN. A mere delineation of boundaries, without changing the number of seats, does not need a 2/3 majority in Parliament.

Under Article 113 of the federal constitution, the interval from the date of completion of last review to the start of next review is eight years. The last delineation of boundaries was effective in April 2003, which means that the election commission may start redelineating boundaries next month.
These are the challenges facing the opposition parties like SAPP in preparing for the next general elections and restoring autonomy for Sabah.