Making sense of Bumburing-Lajim move

By Raymond Tombung

THE TRUTH is my knowledge of politics is so shallow, I often get totally perplexed by the behaviours of politicians. Sometimes I miss the cue and fail to fathom too deep into the intricacies of the political mind game. I too often end up looking at both sides of the coin and then seeing all sorts of additional dimensions linked into the areas of culture, religion, race, power, position, business (development projects), personal vendetta, personal vice and indiscretions, Machiavellianism etc.

Journalists are supposed to read deeper than the surface of the thin newsprint, and see beyond the niceties and officialdom, and no longer be mystified by the seemingly strange mechanizing, innuendoes, shenanigans, gambits, games baits, get-it-by-hook-or-by-crook stratagems spinning like tops on steroids below the surface of the hot political headlines.

Many of my fellow analysts have been accused of misquoting, exaggerating, selective focussing, even bias, but it all because we are only humans, having the strengths of weaknesses as the case may be, with thinking and writing.

Although with age comes wisdom and added insights, there are times in the political developments which defy the understanding of the most seasoned analyst. The development at first seems easy to comprehend, but the more you try to make sense of it, the more befuddled you become and the wider and more complicated the interlacing of interests appear to be.

The case of the Datuk Wilfred Bumburing and Datuk Lajim ditching the BN is a very good example of this. In their case it is not easy to know what really is going on! Wilfred has left Upko and BN outright, he has dissolved his Tuaran Upko division, closed the Tamparuli office, taking with him all the Upko members including those in Kiulu, while Sulaman hadn't had any member to speak of for years.

This situation has left Datuk Madius in a kind of lurch; his campaign to replace Bumburing on the Tuaran parliamentary seat won't be as easy with so many of the old hands gone - and now voting against him!

As for Datuk Hajiji he is widely seen as unshakeable in Sulaman. Despite the virtual disappearance of Upko in Tuaran, the party's support had never been critical for his electoral survival in Sulaman. So, he is not perturbed. But Datuk Jahid may lose a lot of votes in Tamparuli without the Upko support, but his personal popularity may carry him across again, even against Bumburing. Could other factors, like STAR, tip the balance?

These are the easy parts of the whole affair. What is not easy to understand is the strategies behind Bumburing continuing his struggle with the unregistered Angkatan Perubahan Sabah and Lajim continuing his moves under the also unregistered Pakatan Perubahan Sabah.

Come the GE13, they will be contesting by "borrowing" PKR's tickets. The question lingers as to how they will use the winning tickets. Are they going to use them to demand terms, and failing to get what they want, will they jump elsewhere? And if so, to where? Certainly, not back to BN?

The belief is that the duo have been promised by Anwar the leeway to choose candidates for 17 and 18 seats respectively, with promises of the highest state cabinet posts if they win big. So far Bumburing has already mobilized his ex-Upko groups in many divisions, including in PKR strongholds, working independently of the PKR.

Many PKR leaders are still in denial mode about this reality and insist Datuk Seri Anwar wouldn't be so reckless as to make such promises to the two BN deserters, but Lajim is already demanding his 17 seats! The PKR old guards still believe a harmonious relation with the Bumburing and Lajim groups can still be built. But already, online comments are asking if the neither here nor there arrangement is practical or even possible.

They were wise to stay outside the PKR to avoid becoming another Dr. Jeffrey who became a punching bag in the party, but Bumburing's and Lajim's men will eventually clash with the divisional leaders and YB wannabes in PKR.

An online comment made on August 1 says: "Ambrose Sipin the division chief will be replaced by [Datuk] Tan Yong Gee. Anthony Mandiau the division chief of Kota Marudu will be replaced by [Datuk] Maijol Mahap. Stephen Sondoh the division chief of Keningau will be replaced by Petrus Guriting.

Halik Zaman the division chief of Tenom will be replaced by Biau Suyan. Ansari will be replaced by Matbee and many more. This is because the old PKR leaders had failed to move the party forward due to lack of support. Hopefully Lajim and Bumburing won't be played out by Anwar as what he had done to Dr. Jeffrey."

This comment is no exaggeration. Even in Kiulu Bumburing's John Hussein is the new potential candidate, setting aside Gaibin Ransoi and Sindin Ranggangon.

And will Datuk Kalakau get his chance to contest for the Tuaran parliamentary seat with Bumburing pushing his weight? Like it or not, Sabah PKR has to wake up from the temporary excitement of the duo's aligning with PKR and deal with the force of their stronger leaders and sizable following.

Dilemma or not, under the circumstances, Anwar had little choice but to accept them with offer of some kind of assurance for the political future, candidacy being the main consideration. Bumburing had denied candidacy as his motivation for ditching BN but this is hard to swallow.

Anwar knows full well that PKR Sabah is in such urgent need of a new leadership injection after the KDM exodus with Jeffrey, that half-way gains are far better than none - never mind that the understanding with SAPP has to be quietly jettisoned.

And mind you this is not the end of the problem because Anwar has promised more surprises or "good news" to come from Sabah - the wild, wild east - and online portals are already talking about "All eyes on Ghapur Salleh" to follow suit.

There is also the purported Umno links being brought into the whole equation by Lajim, who is said to be clandestine pawn by one Sabah Umno leader to give that leader an advantage and tactical leverage against another state Umno warrior. Of the two, Lajim certainly appears the more mysterious because he had not resigned from Umno but only moved over to align with the Pakatan Rakyat.

When his federal cabinet post was revoked he declined comment, sparking more speculations about his real intents. Verbally, Lajim is in the PR but technically he is still a BN/Umno member and this very position with one leg on each side of the political divide is where the analytical prowess of the observer fails because, with his actions, all the laws of politics have broken down - or is the real politics manifesting in all its refined sophistication here? Maybe, but the question of principle forthrightness must arise, as well as the unflattering question of motive, including the possibility for keeping the door ajar for new deals?

For some kind of limited redemption, the best that the Janang Gayuh can do to defend his discomforting position is to say that he is purposefully doing it to frustrate BN and Umno, and to let them suffer the pain of deliberating over him and eventually sacking him. But this process comes with a doubling of misgivings, and worse, the mystified observers are now making all sorts of wild interpretation and speculations.

Overall, the duo in fact had substantially diminished the impacts of their frogging by the nine-month delay in their official announcements. The double announcements in Tuaran and Beaufort made separately, reportedly at the suggestion of Anwar, was a mistake. By doing it in the two venues, the two leaders were somewhat relegated into district leaders, their images diminished by the village contexts.

The announcements should have been done in a combined function in Kota Kinabalu for synergy where the prestige of the state capital and the state-level aura would have elevated them to higher prominence, what with the ease of access by the press corps. That was PR's PR (public relations) blunder. As it is, the two function and their respective speeches didn't garner much excitement nor lighted much fire.

The biggest weakness was that they failed to say anything new. What can they say that STAR had not articulated already? One online article even expressed amazement at how Lajim made it into a non-event.

What a sharp irony that it was Lajim who said STAR's political direction was not clear, much to the annoyance of STAR leaders. And then he himself personified this allegation by going into a limbo, confusing us about where he really wants to go politically. Political guessing game can heighten the suspense and intrigue, but carried too far it becomes a drag.